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To compare the accuracy of the projections, I use the following metrics: The results are in the table below.The rows represent the different sources of predictions (e.g., ESPN, CBS) and the columns represent the different measures of accuracy for the last three years and the average across years.The source with the best measure for each metric is in blue.
In prior posts, I demonstrated how to download projections from numerous sources, calculate custom projections for your league, and compare the accuracy of different sources of projections (2013, 2014).
In the latest version of our annual series, we hold the forecasters accountable and see who had the most and least accurate fantasy football projections over the last 3 years.
You can download the R script for comparing the projections from different sources here.
You can download the historical projections here and historical performance (i.e., players’ actual points scored) here.
Walter Football projections were not included because they do not separate rushing from receiving touchdowns. Why am I writing about fantasy football and data analysis?
CBS estimates were averaged across Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard in 20. Combining sources of projections removes some of their individual judgment biases (error) and gives us a more accurate fantasy projection. Because fantasy football involves the intersection of two things I love: sports and statistics.
Here is a scatterplot of our average projections in relation to players’ actual fantasy points scored in 2014: Fantasy Football Analytics had the most accurate projections over the last three years. No single source (CBS, NFL.com, ESPN) reliably outperformed the others or the crowd, suggesting that differences between them are likely due in large part to chance. With this site, I hope to demonstrate the relevance of statistics for choosing the best team in fantasy football.
In sum, crowd projections are more accurate than individuals’ judgments for fantasy football projections. But, crowd projections are the most reliably accurate of any source.
People often like to “go with their gut” when picking players.